Due to the complexity of socioeconomics and geopolitics, it is technically difficult to call the events of 2009 with total accuracy. The United States finds itself in an economic meltdown coupled with escalating strife in the Middle East. Terrorist threats continue to be very real worldwide. The United States is embarking on an unprecedented (in monetary numbers) economic bailout for the nation. No longer does the world live in systemic simplicity wherein cause can predict effect. We now live in systemic complexity wherein a stimulus can set off a chain of multiple events that have surprising effects on the several subsystems that make up the complex system.

Great leaders should have the ability to look ahead in consideration of their complex systems and create scenarios projecting the effects of various stimuli on separate subsystems within their structural environment. These scenarios should be rehearsed in advance in the event that they might happen. Leadership today involves asking the right questions and proposing workable solutions ahead of time in order to be ready in case the projections actually happen.

For example, a local community is composed of multiple subsystems, therefore by definition, a community is a complex system. Such subsystems as governmental entities, educational institutions, various citizen groups, civic organizations, various businesses in the community, health care institutions, individual citizens, non-profit organizations, and faith-based institutions are the major entities composing the complex community system.

Orchestrating these subsystems is the responsibility of community leadership. The knowledge level of the leaders for managing complexity coupled with the ability to move the subsystems in a common direction will determine the ultimate success of the community.

When one of the subsystems is out of order or in chaos, then all the other subsystems are affected. In a community, if the business sector is out of balance, for example, the success of the community as a whole is penalized. Or if the citizens are polarized over various issues, the other entities of the community cannot function properly, and the total community cannot move forward.

On a national level, this principle can be applied to the current economic crisis. There has been a tremendous shock to the global system. Chaos could have broken out in unprecedented proportions. Most subsystems of the global community would have been deeply affected. Due to quick action of the United States government as well as other governments throughout the world, the chaos has been lessened, and much shock has been absorbed. There will continue to be much fallout for the next several months—even years. However, a deep economic depression has probably been averted. That systemic remedy has trickled down to local communities, and those systems have suffered less than they would have otherwise had solutions not been applied.

Of course, there is the great debate concerning what caused all these problems in the first place. The short answer: multiple trends collided. Such driving forces as globalization, deregulation, increasing greed, lack of proper oversight, and increasing market competition collided to form the condition of near economic collapse. These trends had been cruising to the collision point for over thirty years, so this condition should have not been a surprise, but seemingly it was to many people.

When leaders make decisions, they must realize that their decisions can have unpredictable effects. Therefore they must be very careful to think through the effects of their decisions on each major subsystem before putting their suggestions into action. Leaders with the ability to assess consequences of their actions on complex systems are rare. This skill will be required in the 21st century and has not been developed well up to this point.

So what do I think will be the outcome of all this global chaos on the United States? I believe that the best days of our country are ahead despite what many others are predicting. It will take several months–even several years–to work through the problems we now confront. There are many subsystems that are not 21st century-ready. I believe that we will diagnose our problems, solve them, move forward with resolve, and innovate our way out of this quagmire. The challenges are great, but so are our abilities to meet them. Experiences can be instructive while the future can be constructive.

Happy New Year.

It was obvious, beginning in the late 1970s, that global competition was setting up American corporations to enter an arena requiring a high level of productivity to combat the razor-thin profit margins that would result from the market share drops. In the 1980s, global competition intensified; and in the 1990s, global competition strengthened even more. And now, in the 21st century, global competition is fierce; and American corporations are beginning to feel the pain–big time.

In 1993, I wrote a book entitled Conquering Corporate Codepencence, which prescribes the skills necessary for worker survival and competitiveness in the 21st century marketplace. I called the issue “corporate codependence” because “codependence” means dependency on someone or something that is dependent on something else. In other words, a codependent person is once-removed from control of his/her destiny. If a person is dependent on a corporation, and that corporation is dependent on global market conditions, then the person is not in direct control of his/her career destiny.

To be in direct control, a layer must be removed from the empowerment process. Workers must become “indipreneurial.” That’s a word I coined to mean that workers must have the skills to work either in a corporation or to work in an entrepreneurial mode outside the corporation; i.e., they must have the ability to be an independent contractor. In effect, indipreneurs wake up every morning unemployed but have the skills necessary to find work and negotiate contracts for that work/project. In 1993, I projected in the book that by the years 2015 to 2020, 70% of the workforce would be indipreneurs.

With the present economic climate (exacerbated by increasing narcissism in key leadership positions), and increasing global competition, it seems that America is on target for those projections. The present requests of General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler for government help in recovering from their present economic crunch further illustrate this point. Many other companies, once they weather this economic storm, will build back their workforce, with a different structure—a structure that has fewer long-term promises.

Here are a few questions from the book to check to see if you might be corporate codependent. Please answer these five questions “yes” or “no.”

1. Do you feel more insecure and uncertain about your future than at any other time in your life?

2. Are you experiencing undue stress and burnout on your present job?

3. Are you depressed as a result of having been laid off or fired from your job?

4. Are you currently employed, but living in fear that you may soon be axed?

5. Would you like to change careers or start your own business, but fear that you don’t have what it takes?

If you answered one or more of these questions with a “yes,” then you might have a tendency to be corporate codependent. The good news is that there are skills for overcoming this condition and that people are capable of positive success even in this unpredictable economic climate.

I’ll discuss more about these skills in a later blog.

Such trends as expanding global freedom, declining ethics, greater international competition, progressively greater percentages of oil being imported, and increasing ideological polarization have intersected to create an impacting train wreck that will be experienced around the world.

Will this create structural change? (Please refer to my blog of 9-2-08 for a definition of structural change). I believe it will. What I am observing from this phenomenon is that Americans are demanding more accountability and responsibility from their leaders representing both governmental and private organizations. Perhaps there are record numbers of people engaged in the political process who are demanding transparency from these leaders. People are moving from apathy to involvement. It is refreshing to see democracy at work and to witness the engrossment of citizens in the happenings of our country. They are demanding accountability in government, business, religion, and nonprofit organizations.

Yes, we are having a train wreck. It is still occurring. However, at some point, the wreckage must be fixed and the tracks repaired. As a country, we will do that, and, in so doing, many countertrends will emerge. Over time, this condition will be a part of history. But something bigger is happening. People are becoming involved. They are demanding empowerment. They are insisting on leadership transparency. This is the major structural change that is occurring.

However, great responsibiity is required of empowered people. They must be informed about the issues. Critical thinking and problem-solving skills are essential in order to objectively assess circumstances and exercise sound judgment. I question that large numbers of people possess the skills and readiness to tackle this new assignment. Hopefully, more emphasis will be placed on these skills in our schools from pre-kindergarten through university level in order to equip our people with the wisdom required of empowerment.

Of course, in governmental affairs, there is always the fact that the general public deals in incomplete information due to security reasons. The questions become: Can good decisions be made without all the facts? Is having all the facts “go public” healthy for national security? Herein exists the dilemma. It stands to reason, then, in our republic, that somewhere along the way, we must trust our elected representatives who should have complete information at their fingertips. It, then, becomes the responsibility of the voters to elect trustworthy officials.

Yes, the United States and the world are living in uncertain, chaotic times. This is nothing new. With all of us working together and exercising wise choices, we can use this structural change as a pivot point for both national and global improvement.

Fast-forward to the 1980s. The PC became a reality. And today, schools have laptops for learners, and homes have multiple laptops and desktop units per family (plus all kinds of other communication tools). Technological gadgets are converging at a rapid rate. For example, TVs, cameras, and telephones are being combined into one device with much more convergence to come. Technology is much more prolific than could have been imagined 40 years ago. Computers and other communication devices have been miniaturized thanks to the progressive complexity of the microchip. The world of computers has structurally changed, and because of that, life has never been the same.

Watching this phenomenon happen was an enlightening experience for me. I saw firsthand what I had always read and instinctively known: Dream the dream without limitations. Plant the idea. Then there is a likelihood that innovators will invent the tools to make the dream come true. Rather than look at the “what is” of today and see the impossibilities, think innovatively about “what could be” tomorrow and see the possibilities.

One of the trends occurring in the 21st century is that structural changes are accelerating. When structural change happens, things will never again be as they were. A physical example is the occurrence of an earthquake. After an earthquake changes the physical structure of the earth, the earth can never be put back exactly as it was. A structural change in technology was triggered by the progressive improvement of the microchip. Another structural change happened when the Internet was introduced for public use. After those and many other technological structural changes, life has never been the same.

Since the beginning of time, structural changes have occurred in many categories, but much more slowly than in today’s warp-speed environment. In those slower periods between structural changes, leaders had time to gain experience, study cycles, and offer viable solutions to recurring problems. That experience could be used again and again as similar problems and circumstances were encountered. However, when the world heads off in a new direction due to a structural change; and leaders are still anticipating that progress is moving forward in a straight line from the present, they miss the new path. They are racing forward but are on the wrong road. Many leaders are trying to resolve today’s problems with yesterday’s solutions and wondering why the solutions aren’t working.

To lead effectively in today’s environment requires that leaders “get it.” They must anticipate structural changes that might occur and create ways to handle the new problems differently. This requires keen thinking skills. The emergence of Honda’s serious competitiveness on U.S. soil in the 1970s, the collapse of oil prices in the mid-1980s, acceptance of the Internet for public use in the early 1990s, the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center in 1993, the terrorist events on September 11, 2001, and the rapid escalation of oil prices in 2008 are all examples of triggers for structural changes forever changing the U.S. socioeconomic climate. Dealing with such changes requires backward analysis for lessons learned from the past and forward thinking for future problem solution. And leaders today are responsible for acquiring and applying these critical skills.

There will be more on this topic in a later blog. But, for now, I want to emphasize that (1) structural changes are occurring at a rapid rate; and (2) leaders of all organizations must be prepared to make critical decisions on issues which they have never encountered before. The future is no longer a continuation of the present.

Copyright 2008, Carolyn Corbin. All rights reserved.